TC
TELOS CORP (TLS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 revenue $36.0M (+26.2% y/y) beat both company guidance ($32.5–$34.5M) and S&P Global consensus $33.6M; Adjusted EPS of $(0.03) beat consensus $(0.06); Adjusted EBITDA was +$0.4M vs guided loss, underscoring strong operating leverage . Revenue/EPS consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.*
- Mix shift (DMDC ramp, TSA PreCheck roll-out) drove lower GAAP gross margin y/y (33.2%, −89 bps), but cash generation stayed robust: CFO highlighted 44% incremental Adjusted EBITDA margin, $7.0M cash from ops, and $4.6M FCF (12.9% margin) .
- Q3 guidance calls for 85%–98% y/y growth with revenue $44–$47M, Adjusted EBITDA $4.0–$5.7M, sequential gross margin uptick (cash GM ~40–41%); management expects positive full‑year cash flow and Q4 similar to Q3 .
- Strategic momentum: TSA PreCheck locations scaled from 56 (Q2’24) to 357 (end Q2) and 415 “today,” plus Xacta FedRAMP High authorization and notable federal wins; Board resumed buybacks ($4.0M for ~1.5M shares at $2.69) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Beat-and-raise quarter: “over delivered on key financial metrics in the second quarter, exceeding both revenue and profit guidance,” with Adjusted EBITDA turning positive and 44% incremental margin on a $7.5M revenue lift y/y .
- TSA PreCheck expansion accelerated: 357 locations at Q2-end and 415 “today,” targeting ~500 by year-end; enrollments ramping with site rollout despite renewal headwinds .
- Strong cash generation and discipline: $7.0M operating cash flow and $4.6M FCF in Q2; Adjusted OpEx ~$0.9M better than guide; share repurchases of $4.0M signal confidence .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP margin compression and losses: gross margin fell to 33.2% (−89 bps y/y) on mix; GAAP net loss widened to $(9.5)M (vs $(7.8)M) as Secure Networks shrank .
- Elevated stock-based compensation: $7.76M added back to EBITDA in Q2, a significant component of non‑GAAP adjustments .
- Margin headwinds from large programs: DMDC dilutive to margin (more software recognized over time, less hardware recognized upfront); TSA PreCheck accrual/GAAP vs cash nuance weighs on reported margins near term .
Financial Results
Segment revenue mix:
Key KPIs and cash metrics:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “TELUS has again over delivered on key financial metrics in the second quarter, exceeding both revenue and profit guidance… Adjusted EBITDA was approximately a $400,000 profit compared to our guidance range of a $2.1 million loss to a $600,000 loss.” — CFO Mark Bendza .
- “That implies a 44% incremental adjusted EBITDA margin due to a combination of revenue growth and lower operating expenses.” — CFO Mark Bendza .
- “We have successfully expanded our nationwide network of [TSA PreCheck] enrollment centers to 415 locations across 40 states… We continue to target achieving 500 enrollment locations in 2025.” — CEO John Wood .
- “We’re very excited about the… FedRAMP High authorization for our Xacta software solution… [It] meets the most stringent standards for protecting highly sensitive government data.” — CEO John Wood .
- “We resumed share repurchases in the second quarter… deployed $4.0 million to repurchase approximately 1.5 million shares at a weighted average price of $2.69.” — CFO Mark Bendza .
Q&A Highlights
- TSA PreCheck demand and DHS policy change: Management does not expect DHS security-lane policy changes to dampen demand; speed-through-line remains key value prop; enrollments ramp with more locations .
- Margin trajectory: Sequential improvement in Q3 driven by mix within key programs (DMDC/Telos ID); wide margin dispersion across revenue streams implies natural quarterly fluctuations .
- DMDC mix and recognition: Mix more software than hardware; some software recognized over time, supporting cash > P&L in 2025; program remains a key growth driver .
- Pipeline and awards: >200 opportunities, ~$4B+ TCV; award cadence weighted to Q4/Q1; focused on national security priorities and Security Solutions growth .
- Capital allocation: Prioritizing buybacks given cash generation; open to disciplined tuck-ins and value-maximizing strategic alternatives if compelling .
Estimates Context
- Versus S&P Global consensus for Q2: Revenue $35.97M vs $33.58M estimate (beat by ~$2.39M); Primary EPS $(0.03) vs $(0.06) estimate (beat by $0.03) . Consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.*
- Q3 set-up: Company guided revenue to $44–$47M vs consensus ~$45.7M; Adjusted EBITDA $4.0–$5.7M (no broad EBITDA consensus disclosed in press materials); management expects sequential margin improvement and positive full-year cash flow . Consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.*
Estimates vs actuals/guidance:
Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution inflection: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance; FCF positive with ~13% margin—evidence that mix headwinds are manageable while scaling large programs .
- Growth drivers intact: DMDC ramp and TSA PreCheck roll-out fuel accelerating H2 growth; Q3 guide implies ~85–98% y/y growth with improving cash margins .
- Margin cadence: Near-term GAAP margin variability persists due to mix and TSA accounting, but sequential cash GM improvement is guided for Q3; investors should anchor on cash conversion .
- Strategic credibility: Xacta FedRAMP High and federal renewals/contracts (e.g., $14M DISA OMS; $3.7M USAF Xacta option) bolster medium-term positioning in well-funded national security budgets .
- Capital returns: Resumed buybacks ($4.0M) signal confidence; balance sheet with ~$57M cash provides optionality .
- Estimate revisions: Beats on Q2 revenue/EPS and strong Q3 guidance suggest upward estimate revisions for H2; monitor mix’s impact on reported margins . Consensus values referenced are from S&P Global.*
- Risk watch: Secure Networks decline continues; stock-based comp remains elevated; DMDC recognition timing and TSA PreCheck GAAP vs cash dynamics can obscure underlying cash performance .
Appendix: Additional Context
Other relevant Q2’25 press releases:
- DISA OMS/AMHS $14M five-year contract award (June 4) .
- $3.7M Air Force Intelligence option-year for Xacta (June 11) .
- TSA PreCheck network reached 350 locations by June 23 (from 41 openings in May and 41 in June) .
Notes on non‑GAAP measures: Adjusted EBITDA, Cash Gross Margin, Free Cash Flow, and related reconciliations are provided in the company’s Q2’25 8‑K; management uses these for evaluating core performance and cash generation .