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TC

TELOS CORP (TLS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 revenue $36.0M (+26.2% y/y) beat both company guidance ($32.5–$34.5M) and S&P Global consensus $33.6M; Adjusted EPS of $(0.03) beat consensus $(0.06); Adjusted EBITDA was +$0.4M vs guided loss, underscoring strong operating leverage . Revenue/EPS consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.*
  • Mix shift (DMDC ramp, TSA PreCheck roll-out) drove lower GAAP gross margin y/y (33.2%, −89 bps), but cash generation stayed robust: CFO highlighted 44% incremental Adjusted EBITDA margin, $7.0M cash from ops, and $4.6M FCF (12.9% margin) .
  • Q3 guidance calls for 85%–98% y/y growth with revenue $44–$47M, Adjusted EBITDA $4.0–$5.7M, sequential gross margin uptick (cash GM ~40–41%); management expects positive full‑year cash flow and Q4 similar to Q3 .
  • Strategic momentum: TSA PreCheck locations scaled from 56 (Q2’24) to 357 (end Q2) and 415 “today,” plus Xacta FedRAMP High authorization and notable federal wins; Board resumed buybacks ($4.0M for ~1.5M shares at $2.69) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Beat-and-raise quarter: “over delivered on key financial metrics in the second quarter, exceeding both revenue and profit guidance,” with Adjusted EBITDA turning positive and 44% incremental margin on a $7.5M revenue lift y/y .
  • TSA PreCheck expansion accelerated: 357 locations at Q2-end and 415 “today,” targeting ~500 by year-end; enrollments ramping with site rollout despite renewal headwinds .
  • Strong cash generation and discipline: $7.0M operating cash flow and $4.6M FCF in Q2; Adjusted OpEx ~$0.9M better than guide; share repurchases of $4.0M signal confidence .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP margin compression and losses: gross margin fell to 33.2% (−89 bps y/y) on mix; GAAP net loss widened to $(9.5)M (vs $(7.8)M) as Secure Networks shrank .
  • Elevated stock-based compensation: $7.76M added back to EBITDA in Q2, a significant component of non‑GAAP adjustments .
  • Margin headwinds from large programs: DMDC dilutive to margin (more software recognized over time, less hardware recognized upfront); TSA PreCheck accrual/GAAP vs cash nuance weighs on reported margins near term .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)$28.50 $30.62 $35.97
GAAP EPS$(0.11) $(0.12) $(0.13)
Adjusted EPS$(0.09) $(0.03) $(0.03)
GAAP Gross Margin %34.1% 39.8% 33.2%
Cash Gross Margin % (non‑GAAP)42.0% 45.3% 38.4%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(2.93) $0.36 $0.38
Cash from Operations ($M)$(7.99) $6.11 $6.95
Free Cash Flow ($M)$(11.34) $3.77 $4.63

Segment revenue mix:

Segment Revenue ($M)Q2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Security Solutions$17.87 $25.82 $32.47
Secure Networks$10.63 $4.80 $3.49
Total$28.50 $30.62 $35.97

Key KPIs and cash metrics:

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
TSA PreCheck Enrollment Centers (#)56 291 357 (415 “today”)
Cash & Equivalents (end of period, $M)$57.93 $56.99
Operating Cash Flow Margin %(28.0%) 19.9% (6.11/30.62) 19.3%
Free Cash Flow Margin % (non‑GAAP)(39.8%) 12.3% (3.77/30.62) 12.9%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/ActualChange
RevenueQ2 2025$32.5–$34.5M (Q1 guide) $36.0M actual Beat prior guidance
Adjusted EBITDAQ2 2025$(2.1)M to $(0.6)M (Q1 guide) $0.4M actual Beat (turned positive)
RevenueQ3 2025$44–$47M New
Adjusted EBITDAQ3 2025$4.0–$5.7M New
Cash Gross MarginQ3 2025~40–41% (sequentially up) New
Full-year Cash FlowFY 2025Positive FCF indicated as achievable at EBITDA breakeven (framework) Expects positive cash flow for full year Maintained/clarified positive outlook

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Q-2)Q1 2025 (Q-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
TSA PreCheck rollout & economics218 sites; targeting ~500; fastest-growing program 291 sites; roll-out phases; key cash contributor 357 at Q2-end, 415 “today”; targeting 500 in 2025; enrollments ramp with locations Accelerating footprint and visibility
DMDC ramp & margin mixTransitioned, began revenue; 2025 driver Dilutive to margin; mix more software; recognition over time, cash upfront Major growth driver; mix supports higher sequential cash GM in Q3 Growth continues; margin impact moderating sequentially
Gross margin trajectoryRecord cash GM 47% in Q4’24 Cash GM 45.3%; guided down on mix GAAP GM 33.2%, Cash GM 38.4%; guide Q3 cash GM 40–41% Dip on mix in H1; rebound guided in H2
Cash flow & working capitalQ4 outflow; reversal expected in Q1 Positive CFO/FCF; WC tailwind Positive CFO/FCF; tailwind to moderate; FCF expected robust Sustained positive FCF
Pipeline/awardsTask orders prioritized amid single-award delays Pipeline >$4B; awards through 2025 >200 opps, ~$4B+ TCV; awards skew to Q4/Q1 Large, well‑funded gov’t pipeline
Xacta/FedRAMP & StateRAMPState-level progress; federal traction Ongoing wins/renewals in federal/commercial FedRAMP High achieved; cited as milestone Strengthening product credential
Secure Networks contractionExpected ramp-down Continued contraction Down to $3.5M (from $10.6M y/y) Mix shifting to higher-strategy programs

Management Commentary

  • “TELUS has again over delivered on key financial metrics in the second quarter, exceeding both revenue and profit guidance… Adjusted EBITDA was approximately a $400,000 profit compared to our guidance range of a $2.1 million loss to a $600,000 loss.” — CFO Mark Bendza .
  • “That implies a 44% incremental adjusted EBITDA margin due to a combination of revenue growth and lower operating expenses.” — CFO Mark Bendza .
  • “We have successfully expanded our nationwide network of [TSA PreCheck] enrollment centers to 415 locations across 40 states… We continue to target achieving 500 enrollment locations in 2025.” — CEO John Wood .
  • “We’re very excited about the… FedRAMP High authorization for our Xacta software solution… [It] meets the most stringent standards for protecting highly sensitive government data.” — CEO John Wood .
  • “We resumed share repurchases in the second quarter… deployed $4.0 million to repurchase approximately 1.5 million shares at a weighted average price of $2.69.” — CFO Mark Bendza .

Q&A Highlights

  • TSA PreCheck demand and DHS policy change: Management does not expect DHS security-lane policy changes to dampen demand; speed-through-line remains key value prop; enrollments ramp with more locations .
  • Margin trajectory: Sequential improvement in Q3 driven by mix within key programs (DMDC/Telos ID); wide margin dispersion across revenue streams implies natural quarterly fluctuations .
  • DMDC mix and recognition: Mix more software than hardware; some software recognized over time, supporting cash > P&L in 2025; program remains a key growth driver .
  • Pipeline and awards: >200 opportunities, ~$4B+ TCV; award cadence weighted to Q4/Q1; focused on national security priorities and Security Solutions growth .
  • Capital allocation: Prioritizing buybacks given cash generation; open to disciplined tuck-ins and value-maximizing strategic alternatives if compelling .

Estimates Context

  • Versus S&P Global consensus for Q2: Revenue $35.97M vs $33.58M estimate (beat by ~$2.39M); Primary EPS $(0.03) vs $(0.06) estimate (beat by $0.03) . Consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.*
  • Q3 set-up: Company guided revenue to $44–$47M vs consensus ~$45.7M; Adjusted EBITDA $4.0–$5.7M (no broad EBITDA consensus disclosed in press materials); management expects sequential margin improvement and positive full-year cash flow . Consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.*

Estimates vs actuals/guidance:

MetricQ2 2025 Consensus*Q2 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus*Q3 2025 Guidance
Revenue ($M)33.58*35.97 45.70*44–47
Primary EPS ($)(0.06)*(0.03) 0.01*
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)0.38 4.0–5.7

Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution inflection: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance; FCF positive with ~13% margin—evidence that mix headwinds are manageable while scaling large programs .
  • Growth drivers intact: DMDC ramp and TSA PreCheck roll-out fuel accelerating H2 growth; Q3 guide implies ~85–98% y/y growth with improving cash margins .
  • Margin cadence: Near-term GAAP margin variability persists due to mix and TSA accounting, but sequential cash GM improvement is guided for Q3; investors should anchor on cash conversion .
  • Strategic credibility: Xacta FedRAMP High and federal renewals/contracts (e.g., $14M DISA OMS; $3.7M USAF Xacta option) bolster medium-term positioning in well-funded national security budgets .
  • Capital returns: Resumed buybacks ($4.0M) signal confidence; balance sheet with ~$57M cash provides optionality .
  • Estimate revisions: Beats on Q2 revenue/EPS and strong Q3 guidance suggest upward estimate revisions for H2; monitor mix’s impact on reported margins . Consensus values referenced are from S&P Global.*
  • Risk watch: Secure Networks decline continues; stock-based comp remains elevated; DMDC recognition timing and TSA PreCheck GAAP vs cash dynamics can obscure underlying cash performance .

Appendix: Additional Context

Other relevant Q2’25 press releases:

  • DISA OMS/AMHS $14M five-year contract award (June 4) .
  • $3.7M Air Force Intelligence option-year for Xacta (June 11) .
  • TSA PreCheck network reached 350 locations by June 23 (from 41 openings in May and 41 in June) .

Notes on non‑GAAP measures: Adjusted EBITDA, Cash Gross Margin, Free Cash Flow, and related reconciliations are provided in the company’s Q2’25 8‑K; management uses these for evaluating core performance and cash generation .